This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Beijing, China. The tournaments are much smaller on DraftKings this week, so I believe that it’s a great week to concentrate more on cash games. The main GPP is an $8 entry that pays $10K into 1st place. That’s the best one to pursue in my view. I will have a couple LUs that I put into a lot of GPPs hoping I can win them all, but I won’t have many LUs in total this week. Other than that, most of my play with this week will probably be in the money games. Mostly H2Hs. That said, here are a couple of plays I enjoy for UFC Beijing, as well as my fade of the week.
Money Game play of this week — Song Yadong ($9,100)
I believe Song Yadong might be the best drama on the card that weekend and you will find 4 fighters priced greater than him. Yadong is a -500 favorite on Saturday and I believe this is a struggle the UFC is needing him to triumph in his home country. I think in tournaments, Yadong will be the greatest owned fighter on the card with 3 girls fighters priced over him, with substantially smaller chances of winning ITD. I think you may make a case to fade him due to his ownership in GPPs, but in money games we don’t care about possession. I think this is a good spot to lock in a triumph and possibly ~100-points, and then try to find 3 more wins which we are able to afford. More frequently than not 4 wins gets the work done in cash games.
GPP drama of this week — Rashad Coulter ($8,400)
This battle has got the 2nd highest FDGTD line on the card in -400. There’s also worth on Hu Yaozong together with him $600 cheaper and the gambling line being nearly even. Normally when there is value like that within an underdog it makes them among the very popular fighters on the card. I really don’t think either of those guys are UFC level fighters, but I am a bit more impressed by what I’ve observed from Coulter compared to the inexperienced Yaozong. I think getting Coulter in GPP lineups in a lower possession than Yaozong makes sense this weekend in a struggle that should not go all 3-rounds. If either of these men get an early end they will likely be about the winning lineup. I’m guessing Coulter are the lower owned guy of both and that’s what makes him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog drama of the week — Francis Ngannou ($7,500)
There really aren’t many underdogs I like to aim this week to get UFC Beijing. I have not loved producing lineups this week since I hate plugging in 2 underdogs once I think virtually every favorite will find a win. I believe the best underdog to target this week is Francis Ngannou since he has a very clear path to success and he’s won in this matchup before. The path to victory for Ngannou is by knockout, and he has the power in order to KO anybody on the planet. If he can get a KO at $7.5k then he probably ends up on the 1st spot lineup, especially if it is an early KO. In the first fight between both of these guys Blaydes was able to get 2 takedowns, but Ngannou managed to get up fairly quickly each time. If he’s able to get up like that here, I don’t find any way Blaydes will have the aerobic to attempt to wrestle for 5-rounds. I believe Ngannou is the scarier guy on the toes and I don’t see Blaydes wanting to strike for extended periods of time. I believe Ngannou is reside for an upset here but on a cardI really don’t enjoy many underdogs I think he’s the best one to target with his 1st round KO upside. Fade of this week — Lauren Mueller ($9,200)
I truly don’t like targeting any of these ladies in the $9k range. I believe they should all get wins, but I do not see any of them getting 10x their wages. For Mueller, she’d need at least 92 DK things to hit 10x and that I think she has to get a conclusion to make that happen. Mueller has 5 wins her MMA record and just 1 of those wins did not go to decision. She also only scored 72 DK points in her UFC win. If she scores 72 at $9.2k then she won’t be winning anyone a championship. In addition, I believe Zhang and Xiaonan have better odds of winning compared to Mueller does this that is why I picked her over those two as my fade of the week. I will not be making a great deal of lineups this week but when I was making 20 lineups afterward Mueller would be on among them.
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