There is a lot of money to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the main tournament. I’ll be going heavier than normal this week following the significant GPP prizes, and that I will play less money games than usual. This is the first time we have seen a $30k top prize so I think it’s worth chasing if you have the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling from this fight against Brian Ortega, so we’re down to 11 battles and we ought to see a great deal of ties with this card with the more popular lineups. If you are chasing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a little different with your lineup so that you can separate yourself from the rest of the field. With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy in addition to my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is far off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That is just too much line worth to pass on in cash games which makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this fight, he should be so highly owned it will not even hurt your lineup in money games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe consider preventing the chalk there if you can. However, with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the cash game play of this week.
GPP play of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird since I literally just picked Paul Felder because my money play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we all do not care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it will not hurt your lineup since only 10 percent of lineups did not have him and you only have to be top ~50% of the field to cash in money games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will be over 50% possessed. If he loses, that is half of the area that is dead with no shot at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% just due to this mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you get a win using the low owned guy to set you at a far better location of a Royal 1st place win and maybe hitting that $30k. Perry has the power to KO anyone and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Can it truly shock you much if Perry could KO him in this battle? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust play and that is Mike Perry this week which makes him my GPP drama of this week.
Underdog drama of the week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this fight took place 5 decades before, but now we get a fading Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can keep this battle standing for many the fight which will give him a big advantage. He’s also dangerous on the floor himself and if he’s taken I believe he is going to be able to get up if he is not able to get a submission of his own. If Pettis can acquire a determination then I think he will pay off his DK price tag and will be a fantastic underdog to use so it is possible to save salary in your lineups. I may even see this fight ending early from Pettis dropping Chiesa using a human body kick and if this happens he will likely be on the winning lineup if he could make it happen in around 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think he wins the struggle, but I do not see him paying that high price . He doesn’t fight at a heavy pace and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins as well as the floor is where he’ll have his biggest edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his salary this week I want at least 91 points out of him to cover that much. I would rather cover the guys higher priced than Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or Miocic. I will have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
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